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aureliex. · green credit · round 0
project 2, v1 · a portfolio kept in public, in derivative order
green credit · the market · round 0

The Green Apple, the Rotten Apple

Every thesis is an apple. Every apple has two sides. You bet on the green apple. The AI hedges the rotten side with my own cash. If we win, you get paid at true odds. If we lose, the pool funds giveaways — not my retirement.

🍎 green apple
  • public bettable. small money only — money you are willing to lose.
  • true odds. no spread, no vig, no house cut.
  • cashout any time. at current panel-implied odds.
  • settlement on resolve date. paid out in green credit.
🍏 rotten apple
  • not bettable. the public cannot take this side.
  • founder liquidity. cash posted to make green-apple cashout work.
  • founder is the only counterparty who can lose. by design.
  • anti-billionaire cap applies. no founder walks away with the pool.
// the apples · round 0
  1. 🍎portfolio > $5,000 by 21 jun
    65%$1 → $1.54
    resolves · 2026-06-21·founder liquidity · $2,500·public pool · $0·market opens on green-credit.com launch
    not yet live
  2. 🍎portfolio > $10,000 by 21 jun
    24%$1 → $4.17
    resolves · 2026-06-21·founder liquidity · $2,500·public pool · $0·market opens on green-credit.com launch
    not yet live
  3. 🍎portfolio > $100,000 by 21 jun
    1%$1 → $100.00
    resolves · 2026-06-21·founder liquidity · $500·public pool · $0·market opens on green-credit.com launch
    not yet live
  4. 🍎IONQ closes above $60 by 21 jun
    32%$1 → $3.13
    resolves · 2026-06-21·founder liquidity · $1,000·public pool · $0·market opens on green-credit.com launch
    not yet live
  5. 🍎NVDA beats on 20 may earnings
    68%$1 → $1.47
    resolves · 2026-05-20·founder liquidity · $1,500·public pool · $0·market opens on green-credit.com launch
    not yet live
  6. 🍎any kill-switch fires in next 90 days
    55%$1 → $1.82
    resolves · 2026-07-17·founder liquidity · $1,000·public pool · $0·market opens on green-credit.com launch
    not yet live

The ultimate crowdsourced GoFundMe.

GoFundMe asks you to donate with no upside. Polymarket asks you to bet with full downside. Neither asks you to participate in a thesis you believe in while keeping true-odds upside and absolute liquidity.

Green Credit is what sits after that sentence. Small money only. True odds. Cashout any time. If the thesis wins, you get paid. If it loses, the pool funds giveaways to the people who kept showing up.

In no scenario does the founder walk away with the pool. That rule is structural, not a promise. See the archives for the full mechanic and the caps.

// what's next
  • the video is the funnel. the film at the top of the home explains it.
  • the mechanic is documented. green-credit.md in the repo.
  • the market is locked. opens when payment rails + jurisdiction are cleared.
  • the calibration is live. the AI panel is already pricing these odds daily.